Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.683798 29.572699 32.869780 36.965403 41.996480 48.088134 56.210085
2025-02-16 22.806989 26.529139 31.163730 37.555555 46.501306 59.237193 80.273767
2025-02-23 19.941912 23.967341 29.293824 37.238192 49.606258 70.024518 112.498897
2025-03-02 18.049963 22.252519 28.089898 37.389771 53.334795 83.894135 167.944212
2025-03-09 16.509642 20.743198 26.844659 37.088040 56.145451 98.155721 258.105322
2025-03-16 15.275477 19.482678 25.728677 36.682233 58.578260 113.855634 431.034042
2025-03-23 14.272972 18.431088 24.759370 36.282556 60.864016 131.889707 862.225105
2025-03-30 13.470152 17.586200 23.991187 36.064132 63.478350 154.877117 3068.002933
2025-04-06 12.668293 16.665669 22.983536 35.190441 64.226784 173.017349 NaN
2025-04-13 12.415901 16.566510 23.321381 37.010937 72.791856 248.666256 NaN
2025-04-20 11.852750 15.925504 22.650739 36.616168 75.011791 298.898884 NaN
2025-04-27 11.441038 15.495130 22.302691 36.849368 79.393991 395.449415 NaN
2025-05-04 11.078840 15.126610 22.041517 37.267564 84.926542 575.469150 NaN
2025-05-11 10.709892 14.721584 21.674317 37.381104 89.620782 872.507130 NaN
2025-05-18 10.298200 14.218944 21.079653 36.849902 91.584956 1247.010834 NaN
2025-05-25 9.987229 13.867634 20.741302 36.899430 96.271576 2501.201796 NaN
2025-06-01 9.660026 13.469427 20.278985 36.559354 99.109275 6166.062230 NaN
2025-06-08 9.350510 13.085120 19.814050 36.142918 101.470535 50915.805602 NaN
2025-06-15 9.065636 12.729188 19.379011 35.743882 103.835920 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 8.818390 12.426815 19.028939 35.526705 107.263317 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.528029 12.035914 18.475690 34.672747 106.464670 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.492011 12.091364 18.830151 36.446828 124.453621 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.271737 11.807248 18.463726 36.061656 127.267779 NaN NaN